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AFC Hermannstadt vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2018

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
5/8/2023Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 7Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt41%
×Draw28%
U Craiova 194831%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.25
U Craiova 1948
1.04

AFC Hermannstadt creates 20% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 59 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.20
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.06
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
69%
AFC Hermannstadt or U Craiova 1948
72%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
59%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
18%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
71%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
36%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
13%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
65%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
28%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
57%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
41%
level
28%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
31%

AFC Hermannstadt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Hermannstadt vs U Craiova 1948

AFC Hermannstadt and U Craiova 1948 drew 0-0 in Liga I on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sibiu.