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AFC Hermannstadt vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
10/1/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt58%
×Draw23%
Ripensia Timisoara19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.78
Ripensia Timisoara
0.92

AFC Hermannstadt creates 93% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
2.07
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
0.80
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
81%
AFC Hermannstadt or Ripensia Timisoara
77%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
42%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
33%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
83%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
53%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
26%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
60%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
23%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
75%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 2.07 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
58%
level
23%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
19%

AFC Hermannstadt at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Hermannstadt vs Ripensia Timisoara

AFC Hermannstadt and Ripensia Timisoara drew 2-2 in Liga II on October 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan in Mediaş.