AFC Hermannstadt 1–1 GAZ Metan Medias

AFC Hermannstadt

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

GAZ Metan Medias

2/3/2021

Liga I · Round 21Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt47%

×Draw27%

GAZ Metan Medias26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC HermannstadtExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.98

AFC Hermannstadt

1.40

GAZ Metan Medias

0.98

AFC Hermannstadt creates 43% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 76 away

1.20

creates per match

0.89

1.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.20

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.06

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw

74%

AFC Hermannstadt or GAZ Metan Medias

73%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

53%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

22%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

75%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

41%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

17%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

62%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

26%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

64%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

47%

level

27%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

26%

AFC Hermannstadt at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff