AFC Hermannstadt 0–1 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

AFC Hermannstadt

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

B. Omrani 75'

1/22/2023

Liga I · Round 22Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt44%

×Draw24%

FCSB32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC HermannstadtExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.42

AFC Hermannstadt

1.69

FCSB

1.42

AFC Hermannstadt creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.64

creates per match

1.68

1.15

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.64

FCSB

1.68

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.15

FCSB

1.73

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt-0.14scores less

FCSB-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw

68%

AFC Hermannstadt or FCSB

76%

Draw or FCSB

56%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

23%

FCSB wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

82%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

50%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

24%

FCSB 1+ goals

76%

FCSB 2+ goals

41%

FCSB 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

58%

FCSB (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.15 · 8 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.73 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.64 + FCSB defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

FCSB attack 1.68 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

44%

level

24%

FCSB scores more

32%

AFC Hermannstadt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

P. Petrescu← V. Buhăcianu

46'

A. Cordea← A. Compagno

46'

V. Crețu← D. Sorescu

58'

F. Coman← M. Edjouma

60'

Adrian Șut

65'

C. Bărbuț← S. Balaure

68'

B. Omrani← D. Miculescu

73'

Risto Radunović

75'

C. Popescu← A. Oroian

75'

B. Omrani↳ F. Coman

76'

A. Răuță← I. Biceanu

79'

R. Oaidă← Octavian Popescu

83'

M. Babić← S. Mino

90+4'

Daniel George Paraschiv

Shots

Statistics

AFCFCSB

Overview

6Total Shots9

2Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots9

3On Target3

1Off Target2

2Blocked4

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0