Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Hermannstadt vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FCSB
FCSB
2/14/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 23Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt42%
×Draw24%
FCSB34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.63
FCSB
1.44

AFC Hermannstadt creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.51
FCSB
1.75

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.14
FCSB
1.75

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt-0.18scores less
FCSB+0.14scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
66%
AFC Hermannstadt or FCSB
76%
Draw or FCSB
58%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
21%
FCSB wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
80%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
48%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
22%
FCSB 1+ goals
76%
FCSB 2+ goals
42%
FCSB 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
55%
FCSB (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.14 · 9 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.51 + FCSB defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

FCSB attack 1.75 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
42%
level
24%
FCSB scores more
34%

AFC Hermannstadt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: AFC Hermannstadt 1–0 FCSB

AFC Hermannstadt beat FCSB 1-0 in Liga I on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan in Mediaş.