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AFC Hermannstadt vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2026

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
2/16/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 27Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt31%
×Draw28%
CFR 1907 Cluj41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.07
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.27

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 19% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 154 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.20
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.06
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.95

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
59%
AFC Hermannstadt or CFR 1907 Cluj
72%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
69%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
12%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
66%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
29%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
9%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
72%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
36%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
43%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
31%
level
28%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
41%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: AFC Hermannstadt 0–1 CFR 1907 Cluj

CFR 1907 Cluj beat AFC Hermannstadt 1-0 in Liga I on February 16, 2026.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sibiu.