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AFC Fylde vs Southport — League #50 2026

AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Southport
Southport
E. Mitchell 71'
Felipe 49', 35'
L. Thomas 18'
4/18/2026League #50League #50 · North - 45Mill Farm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AFC Fylde61%
×Draw19%
Southport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Fylde
2.49
Southport
1.41

AFC Fylde creates 77% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 34 away

creates per match

AFC Fylde
3.33
Southport
1.15

allows per match

AFC Fylde
1.67
Southport
1.65

finishing

AFC Fylde+0.00on par
Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Fylde ↓

Southport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

AFC Fylde or draw
79%
AFC Fylde or Southport
81%
Draw or Southport
39%

Winning margin

AFC Fylde wins by 2+
39%
Southport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Fylde 1+ goals
92%
AFC Fylde 2+ goals
71%
AFC Fylde 3+ goals
45%
Southport 1+ goals
76%
Southport 2+ goals
41%
Southport 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AFC Fylde (draw refunded)
75%
Southport (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Fylde at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Fylde attack 3.33 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.49

Southport attack 1.15 + AFC Fylde defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AFC Fylde scores more
61%
level
19%
Southport scores more
21%

AFC Fylde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AFC Fylde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Thomas
35'
Felipe
49'
Felipe
71'
E. Mitchell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #50: AFC Fylde 4–0 Southport

AFC Fylde beat Southport 4-0 in League #50 on April 18, 2026.

Goals: L. Thomas (18'), Felipe (35', 49'), E. Mitchell (71').

The match was played at Mill Farm in Wesham.