AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Vasalund: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Vasalund

Y. Rafael 2'

A. Andue 86'

E. Durmaz 71'

9/18/2021

Superettan · Round 21Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna55%

×Draw23%

Vasalund22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchVasalund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

AFC Eskilstuna

1.79

Vasalund

1.04

AFC Eskilstuna creates 72% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

1.59

creates per match

1.13

0.95

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.59

Vasalund

1.13

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.95

Vasalund

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Vasalund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Vasalund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

78%

AFC Eskilstuna or Vasalund

77%

Draw or Vasalund

45%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

31%

Vasalund wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

83%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

53%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

26%

Vasalund 1+ goals

65%

Vasalund 2+ goals

28%

Vasalund 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

71%

Vasalund (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Vasalund away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.59 + Vasalund defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vasalund attack 1.13 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

55%

level

23%

Vasalund scores more

22%

AFC Eskilstuna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Y. Rafael

46'

J. Manns← Felix Michel

46'

K. Takahashi← V. Fors

46'

T. Yasuoka← D. Söderberg

46'

C. Georges← P. Azizi

46'

A. Salem← Lucas De Paula

46'

S. Maarouf← P. Wiström

55'

A. Ahl-Holmström← V. Götesson

62'

Jesper Manns

71'

E. Durmaz

76'

A. Yakubu← A. Alsanati

76'

83'

86'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AFCVasalund

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots8

7Corners6

12Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots8

6On Target6

3Off Target2

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1