AFC Eskilstuna 1–0 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Trelleborg

7/18/2022

Superettan · Round 14Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna51%

×Draw25%

Trelleborg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.06

AFC Eskilstuna

1.64

Trelleborg

1.06

AFC Eskilstuna creates 55% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

1.55

creates per match

1.15

0.97

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.55

Trelleborg

1.15

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.97

Trelleborg

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

75%

AFC Eskilstuna or Trelleborg

75%

Draw or Trelleborg

49%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

27%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

81%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

49%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

23%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

65%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

29%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

67%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.55 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

51%

level

25%

Trelleborg scores more

25%

AFC Eskilstuna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff