AFC Eskilstuna 0–1 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orebro SK

D. Björnquist 23'

10/1/2022

Superettan · Round 25Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna53%

×Draw24%

Orebro SK23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.02

AFC Eskilstuna

1.69

Orebro SK

1.02

AFC Eskilstuna creates 66% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 68 away

1.59

creates per match

1.09

0.95

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.59

Orebro SK

1.09

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.95

Orebro SK

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

77%

AFC Eskilstuna or Orebro SK

76%

Draw or Orebro SK

47%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

29%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

82%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

50%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

24%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

64%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

27%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

70%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.59 + Orebro SK defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Orebro SK attack 1.09 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

53%

level

24%

Orebro SK scores more

23%

AFC Eskilstuna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

D. Björnquist

53'

Victor Fors

66'

V. Valgeirsson← O. Olaniyan

66'

73'

73'

75'

85'

S. Maarouf← E. Agyemang Duah

86'

87'

90+3'

90+1'

AFC4-4-2

Orebro5-3-2

30

▼

Dahl

14

▼

Olaniyan

12

▼

77

7

11

15

26

6

2

⚽

20

1

15

16

13

22

17

10

43

3

▼

Mammar

9

Coffey

19

▼

Duah

Manager: J. Al Jebouri

85'▲S. Maarouf←▼E. Agyemang Duah

90+1'▲A. Yakubu←▼A. Mammar

AFC Eskilstuna substitutes

7Maarouf11Yakubu8Shamoun14Berhane18Ghebrekristos20Sabah30Uppenberg

Manager: C. Järdler

66'▲V. Valgeirsson←▼O. Olaniyan

66'▲C. Moses←▼J. Larsson

86'▲E. Barsoum←▼S. Dahl

Orebro SK substitutes

27Valgeirsson99Moses21Barsoum3Nicklasson9Björndahl17Strindholm22Shlimon