AFC Eskilstuna 1–0 Landskrona BoIS: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

A. Coffey 13'

11/27/2021

Superettan · Round 30Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna50%

×Draw25%

Landskrona BoIS25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.06

AFC Eskilstuna

1.59

Landskrona BoIS

1.06

AFC Eskilstuna creates 50% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 98 away

1.55

creates per match

1.16

0.97

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.55

Landskrona BoIS

1.16

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.97

Landskrona BoIS

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

75%

AFC Eskilstuna or Landskrona BoIS

75%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

50%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

26%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

80%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

47%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

21%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

65%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

29%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

66%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.55 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

50%

level

25%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

25%

AFC Eskilstuna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Coffey

20'

P. Andersson← J. Rapp

61'

N. Nielsen← K. Jensen

61'

V. Ekblom← C. Jebara

65'

Philip Andersson

72'

A. Smajic← E. Jönsson

84'

Ismet Lushaku

87'

Y. Rafael← I. Lushaku

87'

I. Touré← A. Coffey

90+3'

A. Linnér← V. Götesson

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AFCLandskrona

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots7

8Corners6

13Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target2

6Off Target5

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1