AFC Eskilstuna 1–0 Jonkopings Sodra: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jonkopings Sodra

A. Coffey 62'

5/16/2021

Superettan · Round 6Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna48%

×Draw25%

Jonkopings Sodra27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchJonkopings Sodra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.13

AFC Eskilstuna

1.58

Jonkopings Sodra

1.13

AFC Eskilstuna creates 40% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 90 away

1.60

creates per match

1.30

0.96

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.60

Jonkopings Sodra

1.30

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.96

Jonkopings Sodra

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

73%

AFC Eskilstuna or Jonkopings Sodra

75%

Draw or Jonkopings Sodra

52%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

25%

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

79%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

47%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

21%

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

68%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

31%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

64%

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.60 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

48%

level

25%

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

27%

AFC Eskilstuna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Daniel Strandsater

46'

E. Omondi← A. Edqvist

54'

A. Coffey← A. Alsanati

54'

Y. Rafael← M. Bazi

62'

A. Coffey

63'

Sebastian Crona

69'

E. Nordström← M. Nikolic

78'

V. Fors← A. Linnér

78'

K. Takahashi← I. Touré

78'

E. Gustafson← D. Strandsäter

81'

L. Sabah← A. Ahl-Holmström

88'

A. Lamin← M. Zeidan

90+1'

Josh Wicks

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AFCJonkopings

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots14

3Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target6

6Off Target8

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1