AFC Eskilstuna 3–2 GIF Sundsvall: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

GIF Sundsvall

A. Larsson 59'

C. Omeje 45+1'

I. Lushaku 43'

P. Engblom 65', 33' (pen)

8/29/2020

Superettan · Round 15Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna48%

×Draw26%

GIF Sundsvall26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchGIF Sundsvall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

AFC Eskilstuna

1.52

GIF Sundsvall

1.04

AFC Eskilstuna creates 46% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 82 away

1.60

creates per match

1.11

0.96

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.60

GIF Sundsvall

1.11

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.96

GIF Sundsvall

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

GIF Sundsvall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

74%

AFC Eskilstuna or GIF Sundsvall

74%

Draw or GIF Sundsvall

52%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

24%

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

78%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

45%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

20%

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

65%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

28%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

65%

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.60 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.11 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

48%

level

26%

GIF Sundsvall scores more

26%

AFC Eskilstuna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Hopcutt← T. Eriksson

18'

W. Loeper

33'

P. EngblomPenalty

43'

45+1'

56'

59'

63'

64'

64'

P. Pichkah← J. Andersson

65'

M. Gorgos← C. Omeje

65'

P. Engblom

73'

V. Götesson← A. Larsson

84'

A. Kojic← W. Loeper

84'

K. Rossi← O. Nnamani

AFC

GIF

29

Andersson

3

Myrestam

5

Olsson

16

▼

Andersson

2

Eriksson

20

Dahlström

11

▼

24

8

7

21

⚽2

31

91

21

13

▼

5

12

10

17

⚽

Lushaku

70

⚽

▼

Omeje

16

▼

Nnamani

7

⚽

▼

Larsson

Manager: O. Melkemichel

65'▲M. Gorgos←▼C. Omeje

73'▲V. Götesson←▼A. Larsson

84'▲A. Kojic←▼W. Loeper

84'▲K. Rossi←▼O. Nnamani

AFC Eskilstuna substitutes

36Gorgos24Götesson2Kojic9Rossi8Ljungberg66Jakobsson

Manager: H. Åhnstrand

13'▲J. Hopcutt←▼T. Eriksson

64'▲P. Pichkah←▼J. Andersson

GIF Sundsvall substitutes

15Hopcutt14Pichkah1Saxton9Mas18Carström19Stenshagen23Nåvik

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 3–2 GIF Sundsvall

AFC Eskilstuna beat GIF Sundsvall 3-2 in Superettan on August 29, 2020.

Goals: P. Engblom (33' pen, 65'), I. Lushaku (43'), C. Omeje (45+1'), A. Larsson (59').

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.

AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 3–2 GIF Sundsvall