AFC Eskilstuna 1–5 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Djurgardens IF

M. Palomino 14'

J. Bergstrom 86', 74'

W. Odefalk 79'

V. Edvardsen 61' (pen)

J. Lofgren 8'

1/28/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna36%

×Draw23%

Djurgardens IF41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.73

AFC Eskilstuna

1.61

Djurgardens IF

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.90

creates per match

1.67

1.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.90

Djurgardens IF

1.67

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.80

Djurgardens IF

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

59%

AFC Eskilstuna or Djurgardens IF

77%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

64%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

18%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

80%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

48%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

22%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

82%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

52%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

47%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.90 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Djurgardens IF attack 1.67 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

36%

level

23%

Djurgardens IF scores more

41%

Djurgardens IF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Lofgren

14'

M. Palomino

61'

V. EdvardsenPenalty

74'

J. Bergstrom

79'

W. Odefalk

86'

J. Bergstrom

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff