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AFC Campus vs EuPa — Suomen Cup 2018

AFC Campus
AFC Campus
FT
2 – 5
EuPa
EuPa
3/16/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AFC Campus11%
×Draw11%
EuPa78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Campus
2.17
EuPa
5.30

EuPa creates 144% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

AFC Campus
1.33
EuPa
4.60

allows per match

AFC Campus
6.00
EuPa
3.00

finishing

AFC Campus+0.00on par
EuPa+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Campus ↓

EuPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–32%
0–43%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–34%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (6%) · grid covers 51% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
92%8%4.5
81%19%

Double chance

AFC Campus or draw
22%
AFC Campus or EuPa
89%
Draw or EuPa
89%

Winning margin

AFC Campus wins by 2+
5%
EuPa wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

AFC Campus 1+ goals
89%
AFC Campus 2+ goals
64%
AFC Campus 3+ goals
36%
EuPa 1+ goals
99%
EuPa 2+ goals
96%
EuPa 3+ goals
86%

Draw no bet

AFC Campus (draw refunded)
13%
EuPa (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Campus at home — creates 1.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

EuPa away — creates 4.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Campus attack 1.33 + EuPa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

EuPa attack 4.60 + AFC Campus defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 5.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

AFC Campus scores more
11%
level
11%
EuPa scores more
78%

EuPa at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "EuPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: AFC Campus 2–5 EuPa

EuPa beat AFC Campus 5-2 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.