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AFC Bournemouth W vs Fulham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

AFC Bournemouth W
AFC Bournemouth W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Fulham W
Fulham W
12/14/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundVitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AFC Bournemouth W62%
×Draw16%
Fulham W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Bournemouth W
3.75
Fulham W
2.32

AFC Bournemouth W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

AFC Bournemouth W
4.00
Fulham W
1.50

allows per match

AFC Bournemouth W
3.14
Fulham W
3.50

finishing

AFC Bournemouth W+0.00on par
Fulham W+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Bournemouth W ↓

Fulham W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–26%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
84%16%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

AFC Bournemouth W or draw
77%
AFC Bournemouth W or Fulham W
84%
Draw or Fulham W
38%

Winning margin

AFC Bournemouth W wins by 2+
44%
Fulham W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AFC Bournemouth W 1+ goals
97%
AFC Bournemouth W 2+ goals
88%
AFC Bournemouth W 3+ goals
70%
Fulham W 1+ goals
90%
Fulham W 2+ goals
67%
Fulham W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

AFC Bournemouth W (draw refunded)
73%
Fulham W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Bournemouth W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Fulham W away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Bournemouth W attack 4.00 + Fulham W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Fulham W attack 1.50 + AFC Bournemouth W defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

AFC Bournemouth W scores more
62%
level
16%
Fulham W scores more
23%

AFC Bournemouth W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "AFC Bournemouth W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: AFC Bournemouth W 5–0 Fulham W

AFC Bournemouth W beat Fulham W 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth.