Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Bournemouth W vs Charlton Athletic W — FA Women's Cup 2019

AFC Bournemouth W
AFC Bournemouth W
FT
0 – 6
Charlton Athletic W
Charlton Athletic W
12/10/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundVitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AFC Bournemouth W35%
×Draw18%
Charlton Athletic W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Bournemouth W
2.40
Charlton Athletic W
2.77

Charlton Athletic W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

AFC Bournemouth W
4.00
Charlton Athletic W
2.40

allows per match

AFC Bournemouth W
3.14
Charlton Athletic W
0.80

finishing

AFC Bournemouth W+0.00on par
Charlton Athletic W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Bournemouth W ↓

Charlton Athletic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

AFC Bournemouth W or draw
53%
AFC Bournemouth W or Charlton Athletic W
82%
Draw or Charlton Athletic W
65%

Winning margin

AFC Bournemouth W wins by 2+
19%
Charlton Athletic W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

AFC Bournemouth W 1+ goals
91%
AFC Bournemouth W 2+ goals
69%
AFC Bournemouth W 3+ goals
42%
Charlton Athletic W 1+ goals
94%
Charlton Athletic W 2+ goals
76%
Charlton Athletic W 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

AFC Bournemouth W (draw refunded)
43%
Charlton Athletic W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Bournemouth W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Charlton Athletic W away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Bournemouth W attack 4.00 + Charlton Athletic W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Charlton Athletic W attack 2.40 + AFC Bournemouth W defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AFC Bournemouth W scores more
35%
level
18%
Charlton Athletic W scores more
47%

Charlton Athletic W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Charlton Athletic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Bournemouth W vs Charlton Athletic W

Charlton Athletic W beat AFC Bournemouth W 6-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, Dorset.