AFC Bournemouth Ladies 0–5 Southampton W

AFC Bournemouth Ladies

0 – 5

Southampton W

12/13/2020

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundPotterne Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AFC Bournemouth Ladies34%

×Draw18%

Southampton W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC Bournemouth LadiesExpected goals in this matchSouthampton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

2.85

AFC Bournemouth Ladies

2.44

Southampton W

2.85

Southampton W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

4.00

creates per match

2.56

3.14

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

AFC Bournemouth Ladies

4.00

Southampton W

2.56

allows per match

AFC Bournemouth Ladies

3.14

Southampton W

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Bournemouth Ladies+0.00on par

Southampton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Bournemouth Ladies ↓

Southampton W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–01%

1–14%

1–25%

1–35%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

AFC Bournemouth Ladies or draw

53%

AFC Bournemouth Ladies or Southampton W

82%

Draw or Southampton W

66%

Winning margin

AFC Bournemouth Ladies wins by 2+

19%

Southampton W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

AFC Bournemouth Ladies 1+ goals

91%

AFC Bournemouth Ladies 2+ goals

70%

AFC Bournemouth Ladies 3+ goals

43%

Southampton W 1+ goals

94%

Southampton W 2+ goals

77%

Southampton W 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

AFC Bournemouth Ladies (draw refunded)

42%

Southampton W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AFC Bournemouth Ladies at home — creates 4.00, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Southampton W away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AFC Bournemouth Ladies attack 4.00 + Southampton W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 2.44

Southampton W attack 2.56 + AFC Bournemouth Ladies defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

AFC Bournemouth Ladies scores more

34%

level

18%

Southampton W scores more

47%

Southampton W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Southampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Bournemouth Ladies vs Southampton W

Southampton W beat AFC Bournemouth Ladies 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Potterne Park in Verwood, Dorset.

AFC Bournemouth Ladies vs Southampton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: AFC Bournemouth Ladies vs Southampton W