AFC Amsterdam 2–1 RKAV Volendam: Result & Stats

AFC Amsterdam

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

RKAV Volendam

S. de Mooij 90+2'

M. Platje 86'

S. Schokker 20'

5/10/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 32Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

AFC Amsterdam53%

×Draw21%

RKAV Volendam26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC AmsterdamExpected goals in this matchRKAV Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.40

AFC Amsterdam

2.06

RKAV Volendam

1.40

AFC Amsterdam creates 47% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 36 away

1.95

creates per match

1.56

1.23

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.95

RKAV Volendam

1.56

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.23

RKAV Volendam

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

RKAV Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw

74%

AFC Amsterdam or RKAV Volendam

79%

Draw or RKAV Volendam

47%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+

31%

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals

87%

AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals

61%

AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals

34%

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals

75%

RKAV Volendam 2+ goals

41%

RKAV Volendam 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)

67%

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.23 · 99 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.95 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.06

RKAV Volendam attack 1.56 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more

53%

level

21%

RKAV Volendam scores more

26%

AFC Amsterdam at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

S. Schokker↳ R. Tol

60'

J. van der Greft

69'

S. Schokker

71'

D. Goedkoop← S. Ederveen

71'

M. Platje← J. van der Greft

75'

P. Plugboer

79'

I. Lee← R. van Rhijn

86'

M. Platje↳ M. Jesse

90+2'

S. de Mooij↳ M. Jesse

AFC

RKAV

1

15

4

13

3

⚽

10

8

26

6

7

A

11

21

3

23

▼

Rhijn

18

Linthorst

5

Claver

4

▼

Ederveen

6

Benninga

16

⚽

Mooij

14

Klopper

10

▼

Greft

11

A

Jesse

Manager: B. Nihom

71'▲D. Goedkoop←▼S. Ederveen

71'▲M. Platje←▼J. van der Greft

79'▲I. Lee←▼R. van Rhijn

AFC Amsterdam substitutes

32Goedkoop7Platje31Lee1Zetten17Ascencion43Zijsling33Fonseca

Manager: B. Smit

RKAV Volendam substitutes

22Witte5Stuyt27Kwakman16Tol20Sier24Pinas17Kwakman