AFC Amsterdam 3–3 OFC Oostzaan: Result & Stats

AFC Amsterdam

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

OFC Oostzaan

11/26/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 16Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AFC Amsterdam70%

×Draw17%

OFC Oostzaan13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC AmsterdamExpected goals in this matchOFC Oostzaan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.98

AFC Amsterdam

2.48

OFC Oostzaan

0.98

AFC Amsterdam creates 153% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

1.97

creates per match

0.71

1.26

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.97

OFC Oostzaan

0.71

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.26

OFC Oostzaan

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

OFC Oostzaan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw

87%

AFC Amsterdam or OFC Oostzaan

83%

Draw or OFC Oostzaan

30%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+

47%

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals

92%

AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals

70%

AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals

44%

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

62%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

26%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)

84%

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more

70%

level

17%

OFC Oostzaan scores more

13%

AFC Amsterdam at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff