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AFC Amsterdam vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
2/6/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 19Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

AFC Amsterdam48%
×Draw23%
Noordwijk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Amsterdam
1.81
Noordwijk
1.36

AFC Amsterdam creates 33% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 85 away

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.97
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.26
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw
71%
AFC Amsterdam or Noordwijk
77%
Draw or Noordwijk
52%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
26%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
84%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
54%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
27%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
74%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
39%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
62%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.81

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more
48%
level
23%
Noordwijk scores more
29%

AFC Amsterdam at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Amsterdam vs Noordwijk

Noordwijk beat AFC Amsterdam 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on February 6, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Goed Genoeg in Amsterdam.