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AFC Amsterdam vs GVVV Veenendaal — Tweede Divisie 2019

AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
11/23/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 14Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

AFC Amsterdam51%
×Draw22%
GVVV Veenendaal26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Amsterdam
1.91
GVVV Veenendaal
1.31

AFC Amsterdam creates 46% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 86 away

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.97
GVVV Veenendaal
1.36

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.26
GVVV Veenendaal
1.85

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw
74%
AFC Amsterdam or GVVV Veenendaal
78%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
49%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
29%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
85%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
57%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
30%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
73%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
38%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
66%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.91

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.36 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more
51%
level
22%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
26%

AFC Amsterdam at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: AFC Amsterdam 2–1 GVVV Veenendaal

AFC Amsterdam beat GVVV Veenendaal 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Goed Genoeg in Amsterdam.