AFC Amsterdam 3–0 ACV: Result & Stats

AFC Amsterdam

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ACV

5/11/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 32Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

AFC Amsterdam53%

×Draw22%

ACV25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC AmsterdamExpected goals in this matchACV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.25

AFC Amsterdam

1.92

ACV

1.25

AFC Amsterdam creates 54% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 51 away

1.97

creates per match

1.25

1.26

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.97

ACV

1.25

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.26

ACV

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

ACV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

ACV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw

75%

AFC Amsterdam or ACV

78%

Draw or ACV

47%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+

30%

ACV wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals

85%

AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals

57%

AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals

30%

ACV 1+ goals

71%

ACV 2+ goals

36%

ACV 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)

68%

ACV (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

ACV away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + ACV defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

ACV attack 1.25 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more

53%

level

22%

ACV scores more

25%

AFC Amsterdam at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff