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AFAD vs WAC — Ligue 1 2019

AFAD
AFAD
FT
1 – 2
WAC
WAC
3/7/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AFAD48%
×Draw27%
WAC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFAD
1.41
WAC
0.94

AFAD creates 50% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 10 away

creates per match

AFAD
1.12
WAC
1.00

allows per match

AFAD
0.88
WAC
1.70

finishing

AFAD+0.00on par
WAC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFAD ↓

WAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AFAD or draw
75%
AFAD or WAC
73%
Draw or WAC
52%

Winning margin

AFAD wins by 2+
23%
WAC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFAD 1+ goals
76%
AFAD 2+ goals
41%
AFAD 3+ goals
17%
WAC 1+ goals
61%
WAC 2+ goals
24%
WAC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFAD (draw refunded)
66%
WAC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFAD at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

WAC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFAD attack 1.12 + WAC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

WAC attack 1.00 + AFAD defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AFAD scores more
48%
level
27%
WAC scores more
25%

AFAD at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AFAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFAD vs WAC

WAC beat AFAD 2-1 in Ligue 1 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.