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AFAD vs SOA — Ligue 1 2019

AFAD
AFAD
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SOA
SOA
5/10/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

AFAD36%
×Draw30%
SOA34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFAD
1.04
SOA
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

creates per match

AFAD
1.12
SOA
1.15

allows per match

AFAD
0.88
SOA
0.97

finishing

AFAD+0.00on par
SOA+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFAD ↓

SOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AFAD or draw
66%
AFAD or SOA
70%
Draw or SOA
64%

Winning margin

AFAD wins by 2+
14%
SOA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AFAD 1+ goals
65%
AFAD 2+ goals
28%
AFAD 3+ goals
9%
SOA 1+ goals
64%
SOA 2+ goals
27%
SOA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AFAD (draw refunded)
51%
SOA (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFAD at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

SOA away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFAD attack 1.12 + SOA defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

SOA attack 1.15 + AFAD defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AFAD scores more
36%
level
30%
SOA scores more
34%

AFAD at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "AFAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: AFAD 3–2 SOA

AFAD beat SOA 3-2 in Ligue 1 on May 10, 2026.