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AF Elbasani vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
12/16/20231st Division1st Division · Round 16Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani61%
×Draw21%
Besa Kavajë18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AF Elbasani
2.08
Besa Kavajë
1.04

AF Elbasani creates 100% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 100 away

creates per match

AF Elbasani
2.71
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

AF Elbasani
0.88
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw
82%
AF Elbasani or Besa Kavajë
79%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
39%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+
38%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals
87%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
61%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
34%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
65%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
28%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
77%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.08

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AF Elbasani scores more
61%
level
21%
Besa Kavajë scores more
18%

AF Elbasani at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AF Elbasani vs Besa Kavajë

AF Elbasani beat Besa Kavajë 2-0 in 1st Division on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.