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Aerostar Bacau vs Unirea Slobozia — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
4/30/2021Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 6Stadionul Aerostar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aerostar Bacau35%
×Draw25%
Unirea Slobozia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
1.38
Unirea Slobozia
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 55 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Unirea Slobozia
1.31

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Unirea Slobozia
1.09

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

Unirea Slobozia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
60%
Aerostar Bacau or Unirea Slobozia
75%
Draw or Unirea Slobozia
65%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
16%
Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
75%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
40%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
16%
Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
77%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
43%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
47%
Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.31 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
35%
level
25%
Unirea Slobozia scores more
40%

Unirea Slobozia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aerostar Bacau vs Unirea Slobozia

Aerostar Bacau and Unirea Slobozia drew 2-2 in Liga II on April 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar in Bacău.