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Aerostar Bacau vs Pandurii TG JIU — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
8/4/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 1Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aerostar Bacau53%
×Draw22%
Pandurii TG JIU25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
2.00
Pandurii TG JIU
1.30

Aerostar Bacau creates 54% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 44 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Pandurii TG JIU
0.95

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Pandurii TG JIU
2.34

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
75%
Aerostar Bacau or Pandurii TG JIU
78%
Draw or Pandurii TG JIU
47%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
31%
Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
86%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
59%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
32%
Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
73%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
37%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
68%
Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
53%
level
22%
Pandurii TG JIU scores more
25%

Aerostar Bacau at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aerostar Bacau vs Pandurii TG JIU

Pandurii TG JIU beat Aerostar Bacau 1-0 in Liga II on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău).