Aerostar Bacau 2–1 Juventus Bucuresti

Aerostar Bacau

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus Bucuresti

4/13/2019

Liga II · Round 30Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aerostar Bacau42%

×Draw24%

Juventus Bucuresti33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aerostar BacauExpected goals in this matchJuventus Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.39

Aerostar Bacau

1.59

Juventus Bucuresti

1.39

Aerostar Bacau creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

1.66

creates per match

1.11

1.66

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau

1.66

Juventus Bucuresti

1.11

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau

1.66

Juventus Bucuresti

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw

67%

Aerostar Bacau or Juventus Bucuresti

76%

Draw or Juventus Bucuresti

58%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+

21%

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals

80%

Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals

47%

Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals

21%

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals

75%

Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals

40%

Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)

56%

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more

42%

level

24%

Juventus Bucuresti scores more

33%

Aerostar Bacau at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff