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Aerostar Bacau vs CSM Reşiţa — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
4/10/2021Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 2Stadionul Aerostar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aerostar Bacau40%
×Draw24%
CSM Reşiţa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
1.56
CSM Reşiţa
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
CSM Reşiţa
1.22

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
CSM Reşiţa
1.47

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
65%
Aerostar Bacau or CSM Reşiţa
76%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
60%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
20%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
79%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
46%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
21%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
76%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
42%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
53%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
40%
level
24%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
35%

Aerostar Bacau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Aerostar Bacau 0–2 CSM Reşiţa

CSM Reşiţa beat Aerostar Bacau 2-0 in Liga II on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar in Bacău.