Aerostar Bacau 2–3 Comuna Recea: Result & Stats

Aerostar Bacau

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Comuna Recea

C. Vraciu 78'

A. Moisi 4'

A. Bakmaz 62'

M. Coman 35' (pen)

A. Văsălie 9'

10/24/2020

Liga II · Round 9Stadionul Aerostar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aerostar Bacau50%

×Draw23%

Comuna Recea27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aerostar BacauExpected goals in this matchComuna Recea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.29

Aerostar Bacau

1.83

Comuna Recea

1.29

Aerostar Bacau creates 42% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

1.66

creates per match

0.92

1.66

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau

1.66

Comuna Recea

0.92

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau

1.66

Comuna Recea

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Comuna Recea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

Comuna Recea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw

73%

Aerostar Bacau or Comuna Recea

77%

Draw or Comuna Recea

50%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+

28%

Comuna Recea wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals

84%

Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals

54%

Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals

28%

Comuna Recea 1+ goals

72%

Comuna Recea 2+ goals

37%

Comuna Recea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)

65%

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Comuna Recea away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + Comuna Recea defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Comuna Recea attack 0.92 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more

50%

level

23%

Comuna Recea scores more

27%

Aerostar Bacau at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Moisi

9'

A. Văsălie

35'

M. ComanPenalty

38'

H. Ilie← M. Chelaru

46'

A. Gavrilă← V. Mihalcea

46'

P. Popescu← D. Burlacu

46'

I. Chirilă← Alexandru Cristian Zaharia

61'

62'

78'

82'

86'

Aerostar

Comuna

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Munteanu

38'▲H. Ilie←▼M. Chelaru

46'▲A. Gavrilă←▼V. Mihalcea

46'▲P. Popescu←▼D. Burlacu

46'▲I. Chirilă←▼Alexandru Cristian Zaharia

61'▲A. Bobaru←▼A. Moisi

Aerostar Bacau substitutes

IlieGavrilăPopescuChirilăBobaru

Manager: N. Constantin

82'▲C. Jucan←▼A. Văsălie

86'▲C. Brata←▼A. Balha

Comuna Recea substitutes

JucanBrata