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Aerostar Bacau vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
0 – 3
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
10/28/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Aerostar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aerostar Bacau43%
×Draw24%
ACS Sirineasa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
1.61
ACS Sirineasa
1.39

Aerostar Bacau creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 84 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
67%
Aerostar Bacau or ACS Sirineasa
76%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
57%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
22%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
80%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
48%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
22%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
75%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
40%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
56%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
43%
level
24%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
33%

Aerostar Bacau at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Aerostar Bacau 0–3 ACS Sirineasa

ACS Sirineasa beat Aerostar Bacau 3-0 in Liga II on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar in Bacău.