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AEL vs Enosis — 1. Division 2019

AEL
AEL
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Enosis
Enosis
A. Makris 89' (pen)
L. Singh 81' (pen)
A. Ella 90'
4/17/20261. Division1. Division · Relegation Group - 29Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

AEL63%
×Draw21%
Enosis16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEL
1.94
Enosis
0.84

AEL creates 131% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

AEL
1.53
Enosis
0.58

allows per match

AEL
1.10
Enosis
2.35

finishing

AEL-0.09on par
Enosis-0.18scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEL ↓

Enosis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AEL or draw
84%
AEL or Enosis
79%
Draw or Enosis
37%

Winning margin

AEL wins by 2+
38%
Enosis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AEL 1+ goals
86%
AEL 2+ goals
58%
AEL 3+ goals
30%
Enosis 1+ goals
57%
Enosis 2+ goals
21%
Enosis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AEL (draw refunded)
80%
Enosis (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEL at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 9 matches

Enosis away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.35 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEL attack 1.53 + Enosis defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Enosis attack 0.58 + AEL defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AEL scores more
63%
level
21%
Enosis scores more
16%

AEL at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
L. SinghAELAEL · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
Antonis Katsiaris
41'
Jimmy Kazan
46'
N. Glavcic← D. Zdravkovski
46'
Sergio Conceicao← A. Panagiotou Filiotis
64'
L. Singh← D. Paroutis
64'
T. Maseko← F. R. Mughe
70'
J. Okeke← S. Risvanis
74'
S. Solomou← A. Katsiaris
74'
A. Ella← M. Simonovski
78'
Z. Sawo← B. Z. Jradi
81'
L. SinghPenalty
82'
C. Kyzas← J. Kazan
82'
D. Solomou← G. Kurez
89'
A. MakrisPenalty
90'
A. Ella

Possession

65%AEL

Shots

15AEL

Pass accuracy

55%AEL

Statistics

AELEnosis
Overview
65%Possession35%
15Total Shots4
2.68Expected Goals (xG)1.17
9Corners2
7Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots4
3On Target1
7Off Target2
5Blocked0
10Inside Box3
5Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
423Total Passes208
356Accurate Passes146
84%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls18
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides0

Match Recap: AEL vs Enosis

AEL beat Enosis 2-1 in 1. Division on April 17, 2026.

Goals: L. Singh (81' pen), A. Makris (89' pen), A. Ella (90').

AEL controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.