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AEL vs Doxa — 1. Division 2019

AEL
AEL
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Doxa
Doxa
5/29/20231. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 14Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

AEL49%
×Draw26%
Doxa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEL
1.54
Doxa
1.05

AEL creates 47% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 87 away

creates per match

AEL
1.53
Doxa
0.92

allows per match

AEL
1.18
Doxa
1.54

finishing

AEL+0.00on par
Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEL ↓

Doxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AEL or draw
74%
AEL or Doxa
74%
Draw or Doxa
51%

Winning margin

AEL wins by 2+
25%
Doxa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AEL 1+ goals
79%
AEL 2+ goals
45%
AEL 3+ goals
20%
Doxa 1+ goals
65%
Doxa 2+ goals
28%
Doxa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AEL (draw refunded)
65%
Doxa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEL at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Doxa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEL attack 1.53 + Doxa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Doxa attack 0.92 + AEL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AEL scores more
49%
level
26%
Doxa scores more
26%

AEL at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: AEL 1–1 Doxa

AEL and Doxa drew 1-1 in 1. Division on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.