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AEL vs AEK Larnaca — 1. Division 2019

AEL
AEL
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
2/14/20241. Division1. Division · Round 25Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

AEL38%
×Draw27%
AEK Larnaca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEL
1.29
AEK Larnaca
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

creates per match

AEL
1.53
AEK Larnaca
1.29

allows per match

AEL
1.18
AEK Larnaca
1.06

finishing

AEL+0.00on par
AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEL ↓

AEK Larnaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AEL or draw
65%
AEL or AEK Larnaca
73%
Draw or AEK Larnaca
62%

Winning margin

AEL wins by 2+
17%
AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AEL 1+ goals
72%
AEL 2+ goals
37%
AEL 3+ goals
14%
AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
71%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
35%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AEL (draw refunded)
52%
AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEL at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEL attack 1.53 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + AEL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AEL scores more
38%
level
27%
AEK Larnaca scores more
35%

AEL at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: AEL 2–3 AEK Larnaca

AEK Larnaca beat AEL 3-2 in 1. Division on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.