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AEK Larnaca vs Shkendija — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shkendija
Shkendija
K. Angielski 83'
12/18/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6AEK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AEK Larnaca45%
×Draw29%
Shkendija26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Larnaca
1.26
Shkendija
0.89

AEK Larnaca creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

AEK Larnaca
0.89
Shkendija
1.00

allows per match

AEK Larnaca
0.78
Shkendija
1.64

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par
Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Shkendija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw
74%
AEK Larnaca or Shkendija
71%
Draw or Shkendija
55%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
20%
Shkendija wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
72%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
36%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
13%
Shkendija 1+ goals
59%
Shkendija 2+ goals
22%
Shkendija 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
63%
Shkendija (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 0.89 + Shkendija defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shkendija attack 1.00 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more
45%
level
29%
Shkendija scores more
26%

AEK Larnaca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
H. MilicevicAEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca · D
7.7

Match Events

42'
Aleksander Trumci
45'
Đorđe IvanovićGoal cancelled
53'
Besart Ibraimi
53'
Liridon Latifi
58'
A. Alhassan← K. Qaka
58'
F. Tamba← B. Ibraimi
67'
K. Angielski← R. Bajic
67'
E. Cabrera← A. Garcia
71'
A. Mazari← S. Spahiu
78'
Godswill Ekpolo
81'
Mathias Gonzalez← G. Naoum
83'
K. Angielski↳ G. Ekpolo
90+2'
E. Saborit← W. Rubio
90+6'
M. Murati← A. Zejnullai

Possession

73%AEK

Shots

17AEK

Pass accuracy

55%AEK

Statistics

AEKShkendija
Overview
73%Possession27%
17Total Shots3
2.36Expected Goals (xG)0.19
5Corners4
5Fouls6
Shots
17Total Shots3
3On Target1
8Off Target0
6Blocked2
12Inside Box2
5Outside Box1
Passing
73%Possession27%
633Total Passes246
556Accurate Passes180
88%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
0.56Goals Prevented0.56
Discipline
5Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: AEK Larnaca vs Shkendija

AEK Larnaca beat Shkendija 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 18, 2025.

Goals: K. Angielski (83').

AEK Larnaca controlled possession (73%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at AEK Arena in Larnaca.