AEK Larnaca 2–2 Pafos: Result & Stats | 1. Division

AEK Larnaca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Pafos

H. Milicevic 90' (pen)

R. Bajic 22'

W. Odefalk 88'

Pepe 31'

5/16/2026

1. Division · Championship Group - 35AEK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

AEK Larnaca44%

×Draw25%

Pafos31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AEK LarnacaExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.24

AEK Larnaca

1.54

Pafos

1.24

AEK Larnaca creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

1.83

creates per match

1.58

0.89

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

AEK Larnaca

1.83

Pafos

1.58

allows per match

AEK Larnaca

0.89

Pafos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw

69%

AEK Larnaca or Pafos

75%

Draw or Pafos

56%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

22%

Pafos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

79%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

45%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

20%

Pafos 1+ goals

71%

Pafos 2+ goals

35%

Pafos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

59%

Pafos (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.83 + Pafos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pafos attack 1.58 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more

44%

level

25%

Pafos scores more

31%

AEK Larnaca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

31'

34'

45+2'

55'

58'

58'

Mathias Gonzalez← Jimmy Suarez

64'

Anderson Silva← D. Quina

73'

O. Mimovic← J. Correia

73'

Dani Silva← I. Sunjic

74'

Derrick Luckassen

81'

C. Loukaidis← A. Cardero

84'

K. Sema← M. Orsic

84'

W. Odefalk← V. Dragomir

88'

90+6'

90+1'

90+4'

90+4'

V. Roberge← C. Kyriakou

90'

H. MilicevicPenalty

AEK4-3-3

Pafos3-4-2-1

11

Jaja

8

▼

Quina

30

▼

Dragomir

17

▼

Orsic

88

⚽

Pepe

26

▼

Sunjic

77

▼

14

4

23

1

51

2

25

▼

Kyriakou

15

⚽

Milicevic

21

▼

Miramon

17

Pons

7

Gustavo

6

▼

Suarez

86

▼

Cardero

11

⚽

Bajic

29

▼

Naoum

Manager: Stavros Raounas

58'▲G. Ekpolo←▼G. Naoum

58'▲Mathias Gonzalez←▼Jimmy Suarez

81'▲C. Loukaidis←▼A. Cardero

90+4'▲A. Garcia←▼Miramon

90+4'▲V. Roberge←▼C. Kyriakou

AEK Larnaca substitutes

1Alomerovic12Komar36Loukaidis14Garcia27Roberge22Ekpolo35Thoma37Gerasimou41Gonzalez32Mudrazija40Strouthou

Manager: Albert Celades

64'▲Anderson Silva←▼D. Quina

73'▲O. Mimovic←▼J. Correia

73'▲Dani Silva←▼I. Sunjic

84'▲K. Sema←▼M. Orsic

84'▲W. Odefalk←▼V. Dragomir

Pafos substitutes

99Papadoudis42Michael19Guessand12Sema21Mimovic80Silva20Odefalk86Christoforou50Brito9Bassouamina33Silva18Lele93Michail