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AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
1/31/20241. Division1. Division · Round 22AEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

AEK Larnaca41%
×Draw26%
Omonia Nicosia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Larnaca
1.42
Omonia Nicosia
1.23

AEK Larnaca creates 15% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 118 away

creates per match

AEK Larnaca
1.74
Omonia Nicosia
1.57

allows per match

AEK Larnaca
0.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.10

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw
67%
AEK Larnaca or Omonia Nicosia
74%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
59%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
20%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
76%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
41%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
17%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
71%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
35%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
56%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.74 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more
41%
level
26%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
33%

AEK Larnaca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: AEK Larnaca 2–1 Omonia Nicosia

AEK Larnaca beat Omonia Nicosia 2-1 in 1. Division on January 31, 2024.

The match was played at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis in Larnaca.