AEK Larnaca 4–0 AZ Alkmaar: Result & Stats

AEK Larnaca

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AZ Alkmaar

M. Rohden 83'

D. Ivanovic 73'

R. Bajic 54'

W. Rubio 25'

10/2/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1AEK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

AEK Larnaca39%

×Draw28%

AZ Alkmaar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AEK LarnacaExpected goals in this matchAZ Alkmaar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.06

AEK Larnaca

1.21

AZ Alkmaar

1.06

AEK Larnaca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

0.75

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

AEK Larnaca

1.00

AZ Alkmaar

1.38

allows per match

AEK Larnaca

0.75

AZ Alkmaar

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

AZ Alkmaar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw

68%

AEK Larnaca or AZ Alkmaar

72%

Draw or AZ Alkmaar

61%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

17%

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

70%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

34%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

12%

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

65%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

29%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

55%

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.00 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.38 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more

39%

level

28%

AZ Alkmaar scores more

32%

AEK Larnaca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Ledes Gustavo

AEK Larnaca · M

9.5

Match Events

2'

Alexandre Penetra

25'

W. Rubio↳ R. Bajic

26'

M. Chavez Garcia← R. Daal

27'

Hrvoje Miličević

33'

Weslley Patati

33'

Wouter Goes

54'

R. Bajic↳ Ledes Gustavo

57'

Miramon← G. Ekpolo

64'

I. Jensen← W. Goes

64'

L. Zeefuik← M. Meerdink

64'

M. Sin← S. Mijnans

68'

Mateo Chávez

71'

G. Naoum← R. Bajic

72'

D. Ivanovic← W. Rubio

72'

E. Dijkstra← D. Kasius

73'

D. Ivanovic↳ Y. Chacon

83'

M. Rohden

84'

D. Gerasimou← Y. Chacon

84'

Mathias Gonzalez← P. Pons

90+1'

David Gerasimou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AEKAZ

Overview

69%Possession31%

23Total Shots6

2.90Expected Goals (xG)0.48

6Corners2

13Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots6

10On Target2

11Off Target2

2Blocked2

16Inside Box5

7Outside Box1

Passing

69%Possession31%

566Total Passes263

518Accurate Passes195

92%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.23Goals Prevented0.23

Discipline

13Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1