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AEK Larnaca vs AEL — 1. Division 2019

AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AEL
AEL
11/27/20231. Division1. Division · Round 12AEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

AEK Larnaca52%
×Draw25%
AEL23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Larnaca
1.59
AEL
0.96

AEK Larnaca creates 66% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 117 away

creates per match

AEK Larnaca
1.74
AEL
1.03

allows per match

AEK Larnaca
0.89
AEL
1.44

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par
AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

AEL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw
77%
AEK Larnaca or AEL
75%
Draw or AEL
48%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
27%
AEL wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
80%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
47%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
21%
AEL 1+ goals
62%
AEL 2+ goals
25%
AEL 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
69%
AEL (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

AEL away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.74 + AEL defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

AEL attack 1.03 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more
52%
level
25%
AEL scores more
23%

AEK Larnaca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AEK Larnaca vs AEL

AEK Larnaca beat AEL 3-0 in 1. Division on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis in Larnaca.