Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AEK Larnaca vs Aberdeen — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
11/6/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3AEK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AEK Larnaca55%
×Draw25%
Aberdeen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Larnaca
1.56
Aberdeen
0.83

AEK Larnaca creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

AEK Larnaca
0.89
Aberdeen
0.89

allows per match

AEK Larnaca
0.78
Aberdeen
2.22

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par
Aberdeen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw
80%
AEK Larnaca or Aberdeen
75%
Draw or Aberdeen
45%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
29%
Aberdeen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
79%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
46%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
21%
Aberdeen 1+ goals
56%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
20%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
73%
Aberdeen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 0.89 + Aberdeen defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aberdeen attack 0.89 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more
55%
level
25%
Aberdeen scores more
20%

AEK Larnaca at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
H. MilicevicAEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca · D
8.6

Match Events

63'
K. Nisbet← M. Lazetic
63'
T. Keskinen← S. Armstrong
67'
G. Naoum← W. Rubio
72'
K. Angielski← R. Bajic
72'
Mathias Gonzalez← P. Pons
75'
N. Milanovic← J. Karlsson
75'
E. Gyamfi← A. Jensen
84'
G. Shinnie← D. Polvara
90+2'
Mathías González
90+2'
P. Ioannou← G. Ekpolo

Possession

68%AEK

Shots

11AEK

Pass accuracy

52%AEK

Statistics

AEKAberdeen
Overview
68%Possession32%
11Total Shots5
0.56Expected Goals (xG)0.83
5Corners5
6Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots5
2On Target0
7Off Target2
2Blocked3
4Inside Box4
7Outside Box1
Passing
68%Possession32%
643Total Passes303
560Accurate Passes241
87%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
0.39Goals Prevented0.39
Discipline
6Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: AEK Larnaca vs Aberdeen

AEK Larnaca and Aberdeen drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 6, 2025.

AEK Larnaca controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at AEK Arena in Larnaca.