Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AEA vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

AEA
AEAadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
Unknown 45+4', 10', 5'
Unknown 45+2'
8/17/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AEA55%
×Draw27%
Sao Carlos17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEA
1.42
Sao Carlos
0.66

AEA creates 115% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

AEA
1.40
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

AEA
0.70
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

AEA+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 63Yes: 3763%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEA ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AEA or draw
83%
AEA or Sao Carlos
73%
Draw or Sao Carlos
45%

Winning margin

AEA wins by 2+
28%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AEA 1+ goals
76%
AEA 2+ goals
41%
AEA 3+ goals
17%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
48%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
14%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AEA (draw refunded)
76%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEA attack 1.40 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + AEA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AEA scores more
55%
level
27%
Sao Carlos scores more
17%

AEA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AEA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
10'
45+2'
45+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AEA 3 – 1 Sao Carlos

AEA beat Sao Carlos 3-1 in Paulista Série B on August 17, 2024.

Goals: ? (5', 10', 45+2', 45+4').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros in Araçatuba, São Paulo.