AE Zakakiou 1–4 Pafos: Result & Stats | 1. Division

AE Zakakiou

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Pafos

10/2/2023

1. Division · Round 6Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AE Zakakiou17%

×Draw20%

Pafos63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AE ZakakiouExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

2.11

AE Zakakiou

0.99

Pafos

2.11

Pafos creates 113% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 120 away

0.95

creates per match

1.32

2.90

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

AE Zakakiou

0.95

Pafos

1.32

allows per match

AE Zakakiou

2.90

Pafos

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AE Zakakiou ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

AE Zakakiou or draw

37%

AE Zakakiou or Pafos

80%

Draw or Pafos

83%

Winning margin

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+

6%

Pafos wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals

63%

AE Zakakiou 2+ goals

26%

AE Zakakiou 3+ goals

8%

Pafos 1+ goals

88%

Pafos 2+ goals

62%

Pafos 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)

21%

Pafos (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AE Zakakiou at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.03 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AE Zakakiou attack 0.95 + Pafos defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Pafos attack 1.32 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AE Zakakiou scores more

17%

level

20%

Pafos scores more

63%

Pafos at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff