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AE Zakakiou vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

AE Zakakiou
AE Zakakiou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
1/21/20241. Division1. Division · Round 20Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AE Zakakiou16%
×Draw19%
Omonia Nicosia64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AE Zakakiou
1.02
Omonia Nicosia
2.23

Omonia Nicosia creates 119% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 118 away

creates per match

AE Zakakiou
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.57

allows per match

AE Zakakiou
2.90
Omonia Nicosia
1.10

finishing

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AE Zakakiou ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AE Zakakiou or draw
36%
AE Zakakiou or Omonia Nicosia
81%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
84%

Winning margin

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+
6%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals
64%
AE Zakakiou 2+ goals
27%
AE Zakakiou 3+ goals
8%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
89%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
65%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)
20%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AE Zakakiou at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AE Zakakiou attack 0.95 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

AE Zakakiou scores more
16%
level
19%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
64%

Omonia Nicosia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AE Zakakiou vs Omonia Nicosia

AE Zakakiou and Omonia Nicosia drew 0-0 in 1. Division on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.