Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AE Zakakiou vs Karmiotissa — 1. Division 2019

AE Zakakiou
AE Zakakiou
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Karmiotissa
Karmiotissa
2/18/20241. Division1. Division · Round 26Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AE Zakakiou30%
×Draw22%
Karmiotissa48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AE Zakakiou
1.48
Karmiotissa
1.93

Karmiotissa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 76 away

creates per match

AE Zakakiou
0.95
Karmiotissa
0.96

allows per match

AE Zakakiou
2.90
Karmiotissa
2.01

finishing

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par
Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AE Zakakiou ↓

Karmiotissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

AE Zakakiou or draw
52%
AE Zakakiou or Karmiotissa
78%
Draw or Karmiotissa
70%

Winning margin

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+
14%
Karmiotissa wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals
77%
AE Zakakiou 2+ goals
43%
AE Zakakiou 3+ goals
19%
Karmiotissa 1+ goals
85%
Karmiotissa 2+ goals
57%
Karmiotissa 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)
38%
Karmiotissa (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AE Zakakiou at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

Karmiotissa away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.01 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AE Zakakiou attack 0.95 + Karmiotissa defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.48

Karmiotissa attack 0.96 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AE Zakakiou scores more
30%
level
22%
Karmiotissa scores more
48%

Karmiotissa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Karmiotissa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AE Zakakiou vs Karmiotissa

Karmiotissa beat AE Zakakiou 2-1 in 1. Division on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.