AE Zakakiou 1–5 Apollon Limassol: Result & Stats

AE Zakakiou

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Apollon Limassol

5/8/2024

1. Division · Relegation Round - 13Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AE Zakakiou17%

×Draw20%

Apollon Limassol63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AE ZakakiouExpected goals in this matchApollon Limassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.14

AE Zakakiou

1.02

Apollon Limassol

2.14

Apollon Limassol creates 110% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 119 away

0.95

creates per match

1.38

2.90

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

AE Zakakiou

0.95

Apollon Limassol

1.38

allows per match

AE Zakakiou

2.90

Apollon Limassol

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AE Zakakiou ↓

Apollon Limassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AE Zakakiou or draw

37%

AE Zakakiou or Apollon Limassol

80%

Draw or Apollon Limassol

83%

Winning margin

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+

6%

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals

64%

AE Zakakiou 2+ goals

27%

AE Zakakiou 3+ goals

8%

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals

88%

Apollon Limassol 2+ goals

63%

Apollon Limassol 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)

21%

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AE Zakakiou at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

Apollon Limassol away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AE Zakakiou attack 0.95 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Apollon Limassol attack 1.38 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AE Zakakiou scores more

17%

level

20%

Apollon Limassol scores more

63%

Apollon Limassol at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff