AE Zakakiou 1–4 AEL: Result & Stats | 1. Division

AE Zakakiou

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

AEL

12/17/2023

1. Division · Round 15Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AE Zakakiou23%

×Draw22%

AEL55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AE ZakakiouExpected goals in this matchAEL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.96

AE Zakakiou

1.19

AEL

1.96

AEL creates 65% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 117 away

0.95

creates per match

1.03

2.90

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

AE Zakakiou

0.95

AEL

1.03

allows per match

AE Zakakiou

2.90

AEL

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par

AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AE Zakakiou ↓

AEL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AE Zakakiou or draw

45%

AE Zakakiou or AEL

78%

Draw or AEL

77%

Winning margin

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+

9%

AEL wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals

70%

AE Zakakiou 2+ goals

33%

AE Zakakiou 3+ goals

12%

AEL 1+ goals

86%

AEL 2+ goals

58%

AEL 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)

29%

AEL (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AE Zakakiou at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

AEL away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AE Zakakiou attack 0.95 + AEL defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

AEL attack 1.03 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AE Zakakiou scores more

23%

level

22%

AEL scores more

55%

AEL at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff