Aduana Stars 3–0 WAFA: Result & Stats

Aduana Stars

FT

3 – 0

WAFA

E. Gyamfi 71', 35'

H. Adams 10'

12/4/2021

Premier League · Round 6Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Aduana Stars54%

×Draw27%

WAFA19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aduana StarsExpected goals in this matchWAFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.70

Aduana Stars

1.41

WAFA

0.70

Aduana Stars creates 101% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 43 away

1.42

creates per match

0.79

0.60

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Aduana Stars

1.42

WAFA

0.79

allows per match

Aduana Stars

0.60

WAFA

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

WAFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw

81%

Aduana Stars or WAFA

73%

Draw or WAFA

46%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

27%

WAFA wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

76%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

41%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

17%

WAFA 1+ goals

50%

WAFA 2+ goals

16%

WAFA 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

74%

WAFA (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 109 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.42 + WAFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.41

WAFA attack 0.79 + Aduana Stars defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aduana Stars scores more

54%

level

27%

WAFA scores more

19%

Aduana Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

H. Adams

35'

E. Gyamfi

47'

71'

E. Gyamfi

74'

75'

77'

A. Boakye← A. Boakye

77'

E. Kwakwa← O. Baffour

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff