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Aduana Stars vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nations
Nations
K. Obeng 75'
F. Charwetey 89'
N. Sulemana 28'
9/22/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Aduana Stars52%
×Draw31%
Nations17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.20
Nations
0.56

Aduana Stars creates 114% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 49 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.42
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.60
Nations
0.98

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
83%
Aduana Stars or Nations
69%
Draw or Nations
48%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
23%
Nations wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
70%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
34%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
12%
Nations 1+ goals
43%
Nations 2+ goals
11%
Nations 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
75%
Nations (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 109 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.42 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.20

Nations attack 0.53 + Aduana Stars defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
52%
level
31%
Nations scores more
17%

Aduana Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
N. Sulemana
75'
K. Obeng
89'
F. Charwetey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aduana Stars 1–2 Nations

Nations beat Aduana Stars 2-1 in Premier League on September 22, 2024.

Goals: N. Sulemana (28'), K. Obeng (75'), F. Charwetey (89').

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.