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Aduana Stars vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
12/21/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Aduana Stars47%
×Draw32%
Hearts of Oak21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.14
Hearts of Oak
0.65

Aduana Stars creates 75% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.41
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.58
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
79%
Aduana Stars or Hearts of Oak
68%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
53%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
20%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
68%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
32%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
11%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
48%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
14%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
69%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.58 · 108 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.41 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Aduana Stars defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
47%
level
32%
Hearts of Oak scores more
21%

Aduana Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aduana Stars 0–0 Hearts of Oak

Aduana Stars and Hearts of Oak drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 21, 2025.

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.